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THE ARAB WINTER
The cold blasts of winter have arrived here in the Middle East over the last weeks with snow on the mountain tops and with the especially cold temperatures at night here in Jerusalem.. But all of this is normal and expected for the middle of January and the rain and snow is begrudgingly welcomed by all of us here in arid Israel.
Winter is winter and we pray for a normal winter to take place and this is the type of weather that a normal winter always brings. And, having passed the midpoint of winter, our thoughts naturally turn towards probably the most welcome season of the year, the springtime.
This year the spring season will mark the one year anniversary of the upheavals in the Arab world that toppled the governments and dictators of Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and are still causing civil war in Yemen and Syria. The Western world optimistically dubbed this wave of violent unrest as the “Arab Spring” and proclaimed the arrival of democracy to this area of the world – an area that has known democracy in only one country in the vicinity, the lonely little country of Israel.
Though it still may be a bit premature to judge the consequences of the “Arab Spring” I think that the signs point to a further destabilization and a state of unrest for all of the countries involved. The Western world’s wishful thinking for stable, democratic governments appears to be unattainable and the “Arab Spring” carries with it a great deal of wintry blasts.
The hallmark of the previous and current dictatorial regimes in the Middle East (perhaps with the exception of Saudi Arabia) was the opposition of the authorities to the Islamist groups within their societies. They realized the dangers of mixing fundamental extreme religious beliefs and policies with politics and diplomacy.
This ruthless keeping of the lid on a potentially boiling pot resulted in the peace treaties between Egypt and Israel and Jordan and Israel and the clandestine commercial relationships between Israel and many of the Gulf states. There never was a majority of the populations of these countries - poor, backward and appallingly illiterate in many cases - that backed any Arab rapprochement with the Jewish state.
The governments of these countries, in recognition of this widespread basic anti-Jewish sentiment, allowed anti-Semitism to flourish on the local level even while they maintained diplomatic correctness with Israel on the international level. These governments, instead of trying to create a base of support for their policies and long term welfare, created the very forces that undermined their authority and exposed their venality and duplicity.
Their very policies and their treatment of the masses, their continued encouragement of the anti-Semitic hatred by their controlled media, guaranteed that the Islamists would certainly rise to power in any sort of democratic election. And so, this has occurred across the entire spectrum of the Arab Middle East where the Islamists are now poised to be the majority force in these governments. Only the continued repression of these Islamist forces by the armies of Jordan and Egypt will keep the peace with Israel ongoing.
Once again we find ourselves between the rock and the hard place. Either we support this repression which reviles our conscience and worldview or we face implacable enemies that surround us and clearly believe that our destruction, God forbid, is religiously ordained by their faith.
What has clouded all dealings here in the Middle East over the past many decades has been an unwilling ability to face facts as they are – an inability to see the clearly. The United States, Europe and Israel have all followed policies that are based on wishful thinking rather than on reality.
The complete misreading of Arafat and the PLO by Israel and the West in the past has led to the current diplomatic stalemate and the inability of the parties to move forward. Even the so-called secular Palestinian leadership is very Islamist in its statements and attitude towards Israel. The Arab mentality towards Israel has been created by centuries of Islamist doctrine that is anti-Jewish and uncompromisingly hostile to the Jewish historical narrative and to any Jewish national aspirations.
The “Arab Spring” and its consequences only reinforce this judgment of the reality of our situation. Feel good proclamations and humanitarian gestures make no dent in this mindset. We can only look realistically at these developments and cautiously guard our strategic advantages - militarily, diplomatically and territorially. Perhaps some sense of reality will sink into our part of the world and the necessary changes in the Islamist Arab mindset will slowly begin to occur.
